The Game of Patliputra

In the last 3 days, Nitish Kumar has played a political master-stroke. He has made sure that JD(U) is not relegated in Bihar politics anytime soon and has consolidated his position in JD(U). Read on if you want to take a glimpse of the electrifying politics happening in the Hindi heartland.

After his party's dismal performance in Lok Sabha elections (2 seats out of 40), Nitish was on shaky grounds. His MLAs were almost in a revolting mood as Nitish had taken the decision to sever ties with BJP without consulting many of his MLAs. His MLAs were of the opinion that if JD(U) had fought with BJP, they could have won 40/40 seats which was frankly very, very possible as it would have been a consolidation of Pro-development Middle class + Youth + Upper castes + Dalits + Muslim vote-banks. But, since JD(U) decided to go on their own, the pro-development + upper castes vote-bank went to BJP and Dalits + Muslims  got fragmented between LJP (Paswan) and RJD-Congress. Nitish had miscalculated his political arithmetic and had committed a political blunder!

Now, it was time to strengthen his diminishing power in his own party as well as in the ever-changing landscape of Bihar politics.

As you might now, he offered his resignation from CM's post a few days back. With this move, he basically played the following 5 moves.

1) Firstly, he took the moral high ground and appeared as a man of his words. He made sure that BJP cannot question him on moral grounds. He made the people of Bihar sympathetic to his cause and showed a strong stance that he is not going to compromise his moral values for votes

2) His MLAs were hugely discontent after the election results as most were not in favor of breaking the alliance with BJP. After offering his resignation, he became a martyr figure in front of his MPs and made sure that they do not defect to BJP. He rallied his supporters behind him and shot himself into the political limelight

3) Sharad Yadav (JD(U) president) and Nitish are not the best of buddies. After Nitish put down his papers, it seemed as if Sharad Yadav was just waiting for this opportunity to take up the CM’s chair. (Remember, he lost LS elections from Madhepura and being the CM will do much good for his political career). Party MLAs almost booed off Sharad Yadav in the party meet and Nitish seemed like the one who is above all petty politics and the only one who is not power-hungry.  Nitish with this stroke made sure that Sharad Yadav understood that it is only Nitish who runs the show in JD(U) and although, Sharad Yadav  is the party president, MLAs see Nitish as their supreme leader

4) JD(U) meanwhile sent out a feeler to RJD through Sharad Yadav and kept their options open in case they need to align with Lalu to keep BJP+LJP+RLSP at bay. Though Nitish will surely re-think this option, as JD(U) and RJD joining hands is similar to Congress and BJP joining hands. But, you never know in this ever changing political landscape. The tectonic plates of Bihar politics are shifting and many new alliances and equations can come to the fore

5) And, finally, in a fitting end to this political symphony, Nitish today appointed Jitan Ram Manjhi as the next CM of Bihar. A brief background of Manjhi – A close aide of Nitish, he currently holds the SC/ST, OBS, EBC Welfare Ministry. Manjhi is a Mahadalit from the Musahar community who occupy the lowest strata of the society in the state.  So, for all practical purposes, Nitish will be pulling the strings and Manjhi will just be the Mahadalit face. Nitish gave a strong signal that he is the only one trying to uplift the EBCs and Mahadalits. Since JD(U)’s core vote-bank has  shifted to RJD and LJP, Nitish needs a new core vote-bank that he can rely upon. Hence, Nitish is laying the foundation of a new core vote-bank so that he has the numbers to take the Bihar Assembly battle single-handedly.

In a nutshell, the battle lines for the 2015 Bihar assembly election are being drawn and it is going to a hard-fought battle. Nitish has understood that he cannot underestimate either BJP-LJP or RJD-Congress in Assembly elections. If he loses power at State, it will take him another 5 years to regain the lost ground. But, there’s a silver lining for Nitish even in these gloomy days. There is something which Nitish has captured in the hearts of Biharis and that is his governance, honesty and simplicity  - During the Lok Sabha elections, the general mood on Bihar streets was: “We are going to vote for Modi at Centre, but our vote lies with Nitish for 2015.”

And, you thought that only Lannisters could play intense power battles! ;)