I was an AAP supporter until.............

I answered a question on Quora - What do you think is the problem with people who keep saying "I used to be an AAP supporter until..."?

The below is my answer. Basically, this post is about how I was enthusiastic about AAP and Kejriwal and lost trust before national elections. This post was written on 28th March, just before national elections started.  

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The problem is not with the people who say this. The problem is with people who don't question AAP. 

Short answer: Because, I can't let a person run the country who has zilch experience and who could not run a government in Delhi for more than 50 days.

Long answer: This answer is a synopsis of the journey of AAP and my emotions and my trust factor associated with it. I was an AAP supporter initially with an admiration of Modi. But, after the recent events, I really feel BJP is the only real choice we have. 

Pre-Delhi Elections:

I had been an ardent supporter of AAP when they decided to fight Delhi elections! I cheered their most of the moves because they were changing how elections were fought in the country. This was their most significant difference.

I was pleasantly surprised when they won 28 seats in Delhi. I was really happy when AK took the oath at Ramlila Maidan. I was determined that AK will change the system in Delhi with what he has envisioned. 

Delhi government:

But,then came their litmus test. 

They faltered at almost every step. I was even fine then. I told myself AK and his cabinet are taking their first baby steps. Give them some space. Let him govern Delhi with a peace of mind. But, there they started showing a major drift. 

Their stances on giving free water, subsidized electricity on the cost of tax-payer's money were first signs of people-appeasement. Still, I turned a blind eye thinking it was fine because it was making an impact with the bigger picture of a people-friendly government. 

Then, came the atrocious mis-managed Jan-sabha. Kejriwal, Dude! What were you thinking? That was the first chink in the armor in bad management. Jan sabhas are not a new thing in Indian democracy. Almost every CM does it, but there's a manner to do it and AK government failed. 

Following, this the Somnath fiasco in Khirki Extn. was like getting cheap publicity. Fine, maybe, your intent was right but your method certainly wasn't. Frankly, Delhi is no Gotham and we DON'T need a Batman! And, frankly, Batman is quite the opposite. He prefers working in shadows rather than in full-blown media limelight. There, I first saw the immaturity of AK's cabinet ministers. 

But, still, I supported AK with his corruption helpline which according to me was not such a good idea (Delhi didn't elect you so that we ourselves have to conduct sting operations, but whatever!). I pacified saying at least he is trying something to weed out corruption. 

And, then AK, you sat on a dharna, which was one of the stupidest things to do! That was when I lost my confidence. There would have been better ways to handle Delhi Police. They are an egoistical bunch, but this is not how you make relations in politics and handle the state. What did you get out of it? Absolutely nothing other than sending the police officials on leave! AAP screwed it up big time at that moment. They kind-of lost the educated middle-class at that time. 

After all this came the humdrum of Jan Lokpal Bill. I frankly assumed there would be good debate on this and then we might see this actually being passed. But, you made a audacious statement of quitting if it is not passed. For God's sake, if you want to do 25 things, you don't quit if one thing gets blocked! Fine, BJP and Congress played spoilsport, joined hands and did not let you introduce the table. But, frankly,you could have come back and tabled it again after proper procedures being followed. Leaders don't abandon the ship if the ship is being threatened by pirates! He fights them tooth and nail unless one is vanquished. You resigned and you fled!

This was the final nail in the coffin of my trust on you. 

Entering National Politics:

And, then the downfall of the trust started. Your "I am above all" demeanor, "everything is run by Ambani and Adani", "Gujarat is not developed, everything is hype", all these bull-shitting tactics fall flat. C'mon, Gujaratis are not stupid. They are one of the best business minded people (even the ones in rural areas). They would not have chosen Modi for 3 times if he was not doing some things right! Give credit where it is due. 

You don't answer questions posed to you by BJP. You don't stick to your promises. You think everything wrong in the country is because of Modi! You want to make the nation believe that only 2 seats matter (Amethi and Varansi). What about the rest of 500+ seats, Mr. Kejriwal?

You haven't talked about economic policies, you haven't talked about how will you tackle inflation, you say you are going to check natural gas prices (but, no one knows how). 

Final conclusion and suggestions:

In my opinion, what you did was to very opportunistic. It is a big gamble you have played by going national. You had a good support base made and you wanted to maximize it without proving yourself. You knew if you stayed in Delhi, you would not be able to go national for another 5 years and will get sidelined like regional parties. But, my friend, you forget, Rome was not built in a day. Congress and BJP are parties who have reached the national stage after many decades of evolution. And, you know that history only remembers if you attack the front-runner. No one remembers who came third in politics. Everyone remembers the 1st and 2nd. And, hence, you have attacked Modi in every arbitrary manner possible. 

See, even I have fought elections and won; it might have been a hostel election, but the fundamentals remain same. :) You have to not only give points in your manifesto, but also say how will you implement it. And, above all, you need to show people that you can lead and show a report card of where you have delivered. The only places where I believe you delivered is RTI and the change you have brought in fighting elections (clean candidates, transparency in donations, etc). But, my friend, winning an election and actually governing are too different things. You are a great fighter, but you have miles to go in governance. And, that's where you have failed. I don't want another government who cannot govern. Our elders have done the mistake of electing Congress twice. I, being a first-time voter, won't do the mistake of voting for you and electing a government that cannot govern.

It is my humble request to AK that AAP should not be another 'secular' hypocrite, people-appeasing party. We have too many parties who fit the bill for this name-tag! Don't ruin the revolution you started.

Thanks!

The Game of Patliputra

In the last 3 days, Nitish Kumar has played a political master-stroke. He has made sure that JD(U) is not relegated in Bihar politics anytime soon and has consolidated his position in JD(U). Read on if you want to take a glimpse of the electrifying politics happening in the Hindi heartland.

After his party's dismal performance in Lok Sabha elections (2 seats out of 40), Nitish was on shaky grounds. His MLAs were almost in a revolting mood as Nitish had taken the decision to sever ties with BJP without consulting many of his MLAs. His MLAs were of the opinion that if JD(U) had fought with BJP, they could have won 40/40 seats which was frankly very, very possible as it would have been a consolidation of Pro-development Middle class + Youth + Upper castes + Dalits + Muslim vote-banks. But, since JD(U) decided to go on their own, the pro-development + upper castes vote-bank went to BJP and Dalits + Muslims  got fragmented between LJP (Paswan) and RJD-Congress. Nitish had miscalculated his political arithmetic and had committed a political blunder!

Now, it was time to strengthen his diminishing power in his own party as well as in the ever-changing landscape of Bihar politics.

As you might now, he offered his resignation from CM's post a few days back. With this move, he basically played the following 5 moves.

1) Firstly, he took the moral high ground and appeared as a man of his words. He made sure that BJP cannot question him on moral grounds. He made the people of Bihar sympathetic to his cause and showed a strong stance that he is not going to compromise his moral values for votes

2) His MLAs were hugely discontent after the election results as most were not in favor of breaking the alliance with BJP. After offering his resignation, he became a martyr figure in front of his MPs and made sure that they do not defect to BJP. He rallied his supporters behind him and shot himself into the political limelight

3) Sharad Yadav (JD(U) president) and Nitish are not the best of buddies. After Nitish put down his papers, it seemed as if Sharad Yadav was just waiting for this opportunity to take up the CM’s chair. (Remember, he lost LS elections from Madhepura and being the CM will do much good for his political career). Party MLAs almost booed off Sharad Yadav in the party meet and Nitish seemed like the one who is above all petty politics and the only one who is not power-hungry.  Nitish with this stroke made sure that Sharad Yadav understood that it is only Nitish who runs the show in JD(U) and although, Sharad Yadav  is the party president, MLAs see Nitish as their supreme leader

4) JD(U) meanwhile sent out a feeler to RJD through Sharad Yadav and kept their options open in case they need to align with Lalu to keep BJP+LJP+RLSP at bay. Though Nitish will surely re-think this option, as JD(U) and RJD joining hands is similar to Congress and BJP joining hands. But, you never know in this ever changing political landscape. The tectonic plates of Bihar politics are shifting and many new alliances and equations can come to the fore

5) And, finally, in a fitting end to this political symphony, Nitish today appointed Jitan Ram Manjhi as the next CM of Bihar. A brief background of Manjhi – A close aide of Nitish, he currently holds the SC/ST, OBS, EBC Welfare Ministry. Manjhi is a Mahadalit from the Musahar community who occupy the lowest strata of the society in the state.  So, for all practical purposes, Nitish will be pulling the strings and Manjhi will just be the Mahadalit face. Nitish gave a strong signal that he is the only one trying to uplift the EBCs and Mahadalits. Since JD(U)’s core vote-bank has  shifted to RJD and LJP, Nitish needs a new core vote-bank that he can rely upon. Hence, Nitish is laying the foundation of a new core vote-bank so that he has the numbers to take the Bihar Assembly battle single-handedly.

In a nutshell, the battle lines for the 2015 Bihar assembly election are being drawn and it is going to a hard-fought battle. Nitish has understood that he cannot underestimate either BJP-LJP or RJD-Congress in Assembly elections. If he loses power at State, it will take him another 5 years to regain the lost ground. But, there’s a silver lining for Nitish even in these gloomy days. There is something which Nitish has captured in the hearts of Biharis and that is his governance, honesty and simplicity  - During the Lok Sabha elections, the general mood on Bihar streets was: “We are going to vote for Modi at Centre, but our vote lies with Nitish for 2015.”

And, you thought that only Lannisters could play intense power battles! ;)